BioStock today publishes a new analysis through its rNPV platform BioVal™ – a valuation of Alzinova AB's lead candidate ALZ-101, an oligomer-specific amyloid beta 42 vaccine for Alzheimer's disease. The analysis arrives at a risk-adjusted asset value (rNPV) of SEK 7.1B and an assessed fair value of SEK 7.2B after adding the company's net cash. This compares with Alzinova's current market cap of SEK 97M.
BioVal™ is BioStock's in-house rNPV model for drug assets, enabling a fundamental, source-backed valuation of individual assets – from preclinical stage through to launch. The model draws on Probability of Success estimates alongside established industry data. For full transparency, every step in the calculation is both visible and traceable.
BioVal values fundamentals – that is, the underlying clinical and commercial value of a specific asset. The analysis does not address share price targets or recommendations. The risk-adjusted asset value (rNPV) is then converted into an assessed fair value by adding net cash, with the aim of making the asset's fundamental value visible rather than forecasting share price performance.
The analysis has been commissioned by Alzinova and is the second published analysis in the BioVal series. ALZ-101 is an active vaccine that stimulates the patient's own immune system to produce antibodies directed against the neurotoxic oligomeric form of amyloid beta 42 – in contrast to the approved monoclonal antibodies, which are administered as chronic infusions. The phase Ib study ALZ-C-001 is complete with positive safety and immunogenicity results; value now turns on a phase II programme still in its early stages.
The analysis assesses the probability of ALZ-101 reaching market approval (Probability of Success) at 19.0 per cent, based on phase II benchmark data with adjustments for the CNS indication (−20 per cent), biomarker-driven eligibility (+20 per cent) and US Fast Track designation (+10 per cent). The probability implied by today's market cap is estimated at 5.2 per cent – roughly a quarter of the base case assumption.
The percentage upside should be read in the context of ALZ-101 addressing one of the industry's potentially largest markets – early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease across the USA, EU, UK and Japan – whilst not yet having phase II data. The gap between the assessed fair value and the current market cap is considerable, as the equity is priced as a micro-cap against a multi-billion-krona disease market.
In addition to the published analysis, readers can interact with the BioVal model directly, adjusting the assumptions that have the greatest impact on the valuation: time to market, the discount rate (WACC), peak sales market share, and Probability of Success. This makes it possible to follow, in real time, how each individual assumption feeds through to the risk-adjusted asset value.
The full analysis is available to read at https://biostock.se/2026/07/bioval-analysis-alzinova-alz-101-valued-at-sek-7-1b/.