* Paving improves while Land & Construction struggles
* We cut ’26e–’28e adj. EBITA by 31%/9%/8%
* Final standalone report with shares tied to Netel
Paving holds up but cannot carry the group
Infrea’s Q3 sales were 1% above ABGSCe, but adj. EBITA missed by 28%, with continued divergence between the segments. Organic growth was 6%, driven by Land & Construction (L&C), where sales rose 10% to SEK 344m. However, low utilisation and project write-downs reduced adj. EBITA to breakeven from SEK 10m, vs our SEK 15m. Paving Services (PS) delivered 2% sales growth and adj. EBITA of SEK 28m, up 35% y-o-y and above our SEK 24m, at a 15.1% margin. Group adj. EBITA was SEK 28m, with SEK 23m of adjustments covering merger costs, remediation at Duo Asfalt and losses at Upplands Markentreprenader.
More work before the recovery
We cut ’26e-’28e adj. EBITA by 31%/9%/8% on continued low activity in parts of L&C. Upplands Markentreprenader will move into Netel’s organisation to access project management capabilities, while restructuring at Siljan Schakt will affect Q4. We include a further SEK 22m of NRI in Q4, taking the full-year total to SEK 45m. PS remains the stronger business, with an underlying improvement also at Duo Asfalt. We forecast group adj. margins of 1.9%/3.2%/3.5% in ’26e-’28e, with recovery dependent on better utilisation and delivery on cost measures.
The final quarter before Netel
This is Infrea’s last standalone quarterly report, with the merger expected to complete on 4 November and the last trading day on 3 November. Shareholders will receive 17 new Netel shares for every four Infrea shares, equivalent to 4.25 Netel shares per Infrea share. The fixed exchange ratio keeps Infrea’s share price closely linked to Netel’s, and we retain no standalone FVR. Focus now shifts to the combined group’s earnings and the targeted SEK 50m in annual cost synergies. The merger provides scope to address weaker operations, but Q3 shows that the underlying recovery still requires work.